New York -- As Rwanda and Uganda show signs of going to war, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa said Uganda "has a lot of grievances against Rwanda," but he does not expect fighting to take place. And a representative of a refugee commission warned of the potentially disastrous humanitarian consequences of a war.

Herman Cohen, who served in the State Department during the elder George Bush administration, has worked since 1994 as a consultant on Africa for a private firm, Cohen and Woods International. While he was not traveled to the Great Lakes region for his private work, the well-connected Cohen still keeps close tabs on affairs throughout Africa.

Cohen recalled that the Rwanda Patriotic Army started out as members of the Ugandan army, supplied by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. He told The Monitor that Rwanda has not yet "returned the favor."

The immediate cause of this latest flare in Uganda-Rwanda relations is a letter Museveni wrote to British Secretary of State for Overseas Development Clare Short asking for Britain’s understanding of his intention to increase defense spending precipitously. "The president was deeply upset by [Kizza Besigye]," said Cohen, commenting on the letter. "He believed that this [campaign] was financed by the Rwandans, and he felt that was a real betrayal."

When asked why the letter came across as emotional and unedited, Cohen said, "[Museveni] has a way of doing that sort of thing, of reacting that way."

Cohen told The Monitor that Uganda’s and Rwanda’s stature in the West has declined because of their participation in the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo. "Both the Rwandan and Ugandan leadership were considered very much representative of a new generation of leaders replacing old, corrupt regimes," he said, "but I think their status in the U.S. has gone down because of what has happened in the eastern Congo. Their occupation of the eastern Congo has resulted in massive human degradation; they’ve had terrible occupation policies, fomented ethnic wars, dealt very harshly with human-rights organizations, and caused massive deaths and malnutrition and disease which normally wouldn’t have taken place."

If Cohen were in a position to advise Rwanda and Uganda, he said he "would urge them to be prudent and not resort to violence. Above all, I would urge them to accelerate their departure from the Congo. So much of their trouble originates form their dispute in the Congo, and there are several UN resolutions demanding they get out."

Should Uganda not heed Cohen’s advice and invade Rwanda, Cohen foresees a Rwandan victory. "There is no way [the Rwandans] could be defeated on their home territory," he said. "They have a better army. After all, they were trained in the United States."

One tactic Cohen suggests Uganda could use to its advantage in a conflict is an economic blockade. "If Uganda shut off all roads to Rwanda, Rwanda would have great difficulty supplying themselves, because they are landlocked," he said.

Cohen also thinks a Rwandan invasion of Uganda is highly unlikely. "They have enough trouble at home defending against rebels, so they have to keep their troops at home," Cohen said of the Rwandans. "They can’t spread themselves to thin. And the whole area on the Ugandan side is very mountainous."

To Joel Frushone, policy analyst for the U.S. Committee for Refugees, a Uganda-Rwanda conflict would be calamitous. "We do not want to see either country causing trouble or starting trouble, because of the consequences," Frushone told The Monitor.

"Another war in that region would have the potential to produce massive flows of refugees," he added, pointing out that there are few villages in northern Rwanda, but in southwestern Uganda, there are critical cities. "And in so many places in Africa, refugees are fleeing conflicts and seeking safe havens in nations that are embroiled in conflict themselves." In the scenario of a Uganda-Rwanda war, Frushone suggested many civilians may flee to the DRC.

A war would also probably increase Uganda’s number of internally displaced persons, already estimated at above half a million, as some Ugandans flee north from the border. "Do Ugandans flee to Kenya, Tanzania, or the Congo, or do they flow north from the Rwanda border?" Frushone asked. "The bottom line is, there will be more internally displaced."

With Rwanda-Uganda relations seemingly on the verge of war, what is the world’s superpower doing about it? The Monitor was unable to reach the State Department for comment.

"The United States government is so focused on things that are happening in Afghanistan and central Asia, that I really don’t know what the U.S. government is doing," Frushone said.

With anthrax scares still disrupting U.S. Congressional work on the Capitol, a spokeswoman for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee would only say, "Committee staff are aware of what’s going on, and they are keeping the members of the committee informed."